A Myth is an idea or explanation which is widely held, but untrue or unproven.

Many things (true, false, and speculative) have been said and written about the Tarot. Some statements seem like historical fact, but are actually without basis in the evidence currently available, and are therefore known as ‘Tarot Myths’.

There is a theory that Tarot cards are an ancient link with the secrets and mysteries of the past, however, the information given here consists mostly of conclusions reached by recent Tarot scholars who have studied the evidence of written documents and cards from recent centuries.

1. Origin of the “Tarot”.

Myth: The Tarot comes from Egypt, India or China, and was spread throughout Europe via the nomadic gypsies.

Current Viewpoint: The Tarot originated in northern Italy early in the 15th century (1420-1440). There is no evidence for it originating in any other time or place. The earliest extant cards are lavish hand-painted decks from the courts of the nobility.

2. Origin of the word "Tarot" Myth: The word is of Egyptian, French or Italian origin. It is also thought to be an anagram which holds the key to the mystery of the cards.

Current Viewpoint: The earliest names for the Tarot are all Italian. Originally the cards were called carte da trionfi (cards of the triumphs). Around 1530 (about 100 years after the origin of the cards), the word tarocchi (singular tarocco) was used to distinguish them from a new game of triumphs (or trumps) then being played with ordinary playing cards. The etymology of this new word is not known. The German form is tarock, the French form is Tarot. Even if the etymology were known, it would probably not tell us much about the idea behind the cards, since it only came into use 100 years after they first appeared.

3. Tarot Trump symbols Myth: The symbolism of the trumps comes from ancient Egypt, and other ancient cults and religions no longer around. Current Viewpoint: The symbolism of the trumps is drawn from the culture of Medieval and Renaissance Europe, many of which had their roots in the ancient cultures of Egypt and Judaism. Most Tarot subjects are distinctive to European Christendom. Illustrations virtually identical to the Tarot subjects can be found in European art, and such precise analogs are not found in other cultures.

4. Relationship between Tarot and ordinary playing cards

Myth: The 52-card deck of ordinary playing cards evolved from the Minor Arcana of the Tarot, with The Page card being reduced to a Joker. Current Viewpoint: Playing cards came to Europe from the Islamic Mamluk cards. (probably via Muslim Spain) about 50 years before the development of Tarot. They appeared quite suddenly in many different European cities between 1375 and 1378. European playing cards were an adaptation of these Islamic Mamluk cards.
These early cards had suits of cups, swords, coins, and polo sticks (seen by Europeans as staves), and court cards consisting of a king and two male underlings. The Tarot adds the Fool, the Trumps, and a set of queens to this system. Some time before 1480, the French introduced cards with the now-familiar suits of hearts, clubs, spades, and diamonds. The earlier suits are still preserved in the Tarot and in Italian and Spanish playing cards. The Joker originated in the United States around 1857. It is used as a wild card in poker and as the highest trump in Euchre. It appears to have no direct relationship to the Fool of the Tarot.

5. Tarot censored by the Church

Myth: The Catholic and Protestant churches outlawed Tarot as the work of the Devil and also to stamp out heretical teachings.
Current Viewpoint: The Inquisition documented in considerable detail what the church regarded as evidence of heresy. Tarot cards are not mentioned.
Many printers made their living printing both religious and playing cards. Playing cards were sometimes restricted or outlawed because of their use in gambling, but Tarot cards were in fact sometimes explicitly exempted from bans on ordinary playing cards, perhaps because of their association with the aristocracy and courts of Europe.
In 1423, playing cards (Tarot cards were not mentioned) were among many things thrown on the fires in Bologna by followers of Bernadino of Sienna during an attack against all studies and pastimes not focused on religion. After the Reformation however, the church did object to the cards depicting the Pope and Papess, and cardmakers substituted less controversial images.

6. Use of Tarot cards

Myth: The Tarot was originally used for divination and fortune telling.
Current Viewpoint: Written records tell that the Tarot was regularly used to play a card game similar to Bridge. The game was popular throughout much of Europe for centuries and is still played today, particularly in France. Early poets also used the titles of the trump cards to create flattering verses, called tarocchi appropriati, describing ladies of the court or famous personages.
Although it is possible that Tarot cards might also have been used for other purposes, there is no clear evidence of such use until long after the cards were invented. However, it is known that ordinary playing cards were connected with divination as early as 1487, so it is reasonable to conjecture that Tarot was also used in this fashion.
There are records of divinatory meanings assigned to Tarot cards in Bologna early in the 18th century (Etteilla’s deck - 1790), and Tarot design now becomes modified specifically to reflect divinatory and esoteric meanings. This is the first unambiguous evidence of Tarot divination as it is commonly understood nowadays.

7. Occult philosophy and the original design of the Tarot

Myth: There are no hermetic, heretical, or kabbalistic characteristics in the original Tarot.
Current Viewpoint: This topic is still open. The early Italian Renaissance, during which time the Tarot is mentioned, was a time of great intellectual diversity and activity. Hermeticism, astrology, Neoplatonism, Pythagorean philosophy with roots in Alexandrian Egypt, and heterodox Christian thought all thrived.
Any or all of these may have influenced the Tarot. Although it should be remembered that all of the symbolism of the Tarot has close analogs in the conventional Christian culture of the time, many scholars today believe that all these philosophies which are foundations of occultism, played a part in the design of the Tarot.

8. The Waite-Smith Tarot

Myth: The Waite-Smith (or "Rider Waite") Tarot is the standard, or most authentic Tarot.
Current Viewpoint: There is actually no "definitive" version of the Tarot. The Waite-Smith deck was created in 1909, making it a relative newcomer in the almost 600 year history of the Tarot. A. E. Waite was a prominent member of the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn. The deck owes much of its symbolism to that group and represents a departure from the earlier French tradition.
The artist, Pamela Colman Smith, contributed her own vision in the creation of fully illustrated scenes for the Minor Arcana. For many years, the Waite-Smith deck was the only one readily available in the US, so it became familiar to generations of Tarot readers.

Conclusion:
Tarot cards when used correctly are not meant to predict the future. but rather as a counseling tool, for guidance or direction at the time of consultation. The cards serve to bring concerns into focus and hold advice for the situation. However their reliability is entirely dependent upon the reader and his/her interpretation

If someone is predicting the future using Tarot cards, then they are either a psychic using them for aesthetic purposes, or a complete fraud.

Sources and suggested reading:

Decker, Dummett, and Depaulis, A Wicked Pack of Cards
Dummett, Michael, The Game of Tarot
Giles, Cythnia, The Tarot: History, Mystery, and Lore
Kaplan, Stuart, The Encyclopedia of Tarot, Vol. I & II
Moakley, Gertrude, The Tarot Cards Painted by Bonifacio Bembo
O'Neill, Robert V., Tarot Symbolism
Williams, Brian, A Renaissance Tarot
Williams, Brian, The Minchiate Tarot